Wachstum und schulden in Europa
Ładowanie...
Data wydania
2012
Autorzy
Tytuł czasopisma
ISSN
1733-2680
eISSN
Tytuł tomu
ISBN
eISBN
Wydawca
Oficyna Wydawnicza AFM
Abstrakt
In the current debate on the Euro crisis, the received wisdom considers too much debt as the
main cause. Profligate debtors, primarily governments, are supposed to be the culprits. Resolving the
crisis requires therefore a massive deleveraging. Germany, in particular, abhors debt and sees it as the
original sin. The German word for debt (“Schulden”) connotes already “guilt” (in German: “Schuld”).
Actually, debt is a necessary core element of any capitalist economy. Without debt there
can hardly be growth. It is debtors, not savers who are the drivers of growth. Growth is also the best
way to get out of a debt crisis. Capital and asset markets are supposed to finance growth, identify
investment opportunities ant to reduce risks. But often they fail, and are driven by manias and panics
rather than prudent assessment.
Growth in Europe has been strongly unbalanced during the last 10–15 years. While countries
in the European periphery enjoyed high growth, fueled by increasing private debt, Germany’s
economy stagnated and saved. Subsequently the debtor countries showed high current account
deficits while Germany had large export surpluses. The financial crisis stopped suddenly the access
to new credits and thus growth.
This hard landing triggered a recession which required government spending to stimulate
the economy and to bail out banks which in turn increased public debt dramatically. In spite of a fast
recovery a panic in the government bond markets followed in the Euro zone. This panic resulted
less from unacceptably high debt levels but from a flawed design of the Euro zone’s institutions
(lack of a lender of last resort) and wrong policies. The austerity policies which were enforced by
Germany and the European Union (EU) exacerbated the crisis and slowed or reversed the recovery.
Debt and wealth are just two sides of the same medal and can only be changed together as
the global net monetary investment position is always zero. Deleveraging is easiest in a context of
growth, when creditors spend and reduce their savings. All the other options are worse: Spending
cuts which lead to deflation and depression, bankruptcies or – though somewhat less disruptive –
the real devaluation of debt by inflation.
Growth with deleveraging requires the spending of debtors which generate and increase
debtors’ revenues. Given the distribution of assets and debts, such a process implies that rich households
(the net creditors) have to spend more in a way which either directly or indirectly leads to higher
revenues of the indebted governments. Besides a levy on wealth and higher taxes for the rich the
market solution would require massive real economy investment by the creditors which would trigger
new growth, increase profits and wages which in turn would provide more tax revenues.
Growth will resume when credits flow again and therefore, paradoxically, new debt is created.
This will only happen when potential investors meet potential debtors with higher and more sustainable
income. This requires a redistribution of income in favor of poorer households, enterprises ready
to invest and governments which up to now took over the risks. A leaner and better regulated financial
sector should focus on financing these adjustments in the real economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) should support such a process of growth and deleveraging
by a permissive monetary policy, which aim at a target of nominal GDP growth of 4–6% rather than
at an inflation target of 2%. A slightly higher rate of inflation would lower the government debt ratio
(debt/GDP) in the long run. The countries of the Euro zone need a lender of last resort, possibly by
creating a European Monetary Fund which should have unlimited access to ECB liquidity.
Opis
Tematy
Słowa kluczowe
Źródło
Krakowskie Studia Międzynarodowe 2012, nr 4, s. 25-48.