Modele hybrydowe MSV-MGARCH z trzema procesami ukrytymi w badaniu zmienności cen na różnych rynkach
Ładowanie...
Data wydania
2011
Tytuł czasopisma
ISSN
0071-674X
eISSN
Tytuł tomu
ISBN
eISBN
Wydawca
Oficyna Wydawnicza AFM
Abstrakt
J. Osiewalski and A.Pajor (2007, 2009) and J. Osiewalski (2009) introduced hybrid multivariate stochastic
variance — GARCH (MSV-MGARCH) models, where the conditional covariance matrix is
the product of a univariate latent process and a matrix with a simple MGARCH structure (Engle's
DCC or scalar BEKK). The aim was to parsimoniously describe volatility of a large group of assets.
The proposed hybrid specifications, similarly as other models from the MSV class, require the
Bayesian approach equipped with MCMC simulation tools. In order to jointly describe volatility
on two different markets (or of two different groups of assets), J. Osiewalski and K.Osiewalski
(2011) consider more complicated hybrid models with two latent processes. These new specifications
seem very promising due to their good fit and moderate computational requirements.
This paper is devoted to hybrid specifications with three latent processes, even more complicated
and located on the edge of possibilities of conducting exact Bayesian analysis. We present
full Bayesian inference for such models and propose efficient MCMC simulation strategy. Our
approach is used to jointly model volatility of six daily time series representing three different
groups: two stock indices, prices of gold and silver, prices of oil and natural gas. We formally compare
joint modelling to individual bivariate volatility modelling for each of three groups.
Opis
Tematy
Słowa kluczowe
Quantitative finance, Volatility analysis, multivariate SV processes, Bayesian inference, Ilościowe finanse, Analiza zmienności, wielowymiarowe procesy SV, wnioskowanie bayesowskie
Źródło
Folia Oeconomica Cracoviensia 2011, Vol. LII, s. 71-85.