Small Modular Reactors in Poland: Financial risks and constraints in a radically innovative megaproject
Ładowanie...
Data wydania
2024
Autorzy
Tytuł czasopisma
ISSN
1899-6264
eISSN
2451-0718
Tytuł tomu
ISBN
eISBN
Wydawca
Oficyna Wydawnicza AFM Uniwersytetu Andrzeja Frycza Modrzewskiego w Krakowie
Abstrakt
This article introduces a method of assessing the capital needs of megaprojects in the
domain of energy, in the presence of significant uncertainty, and the method is applied
for studying two projects of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) in Poland. The working hypothesis
is that uncertainties relative to those projects make them prone to adopting an
opportunistic strategy, where business structures accumulate and hold significant
amounts of cash without clear immediate purpose. The hypothesis is being verified by
simulating the business structure of hypothetical entities, supposed to own and manage
the productive nuclear assets. Simulation is done by emulating the business structures
of incumbent entities, both those founding the two projects studied, and those serving
as benchmarks in the same industry. Emulation is done both case by case, and by Monte
Carlo sampling. Empirical results of the simulation suggest that significant cash holdings
can appear in those projects, if and to the extent that the real business structures created
therein emulate firms such as NuScale Power (partner and technology provider in one of
the projects studied), i.e. firms with a mission to prepare the deployment of SMR rather
than actually conduct it. Monte Carlo sampling, which sets a central financial scenario,
seems to contradict the working hypothesis.
Opis
Słowa kluczowe
Źródło
Bezpieczeństwo. Teoria i Praktyka 2024, nr 4, s. 61-71.
