Markov switching in stochastic variance. Bayesian comparison of two simple models
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Date
2009
Authors
Journal Title
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0071-674X
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Volume Title
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Publisher
Oficyna Wydawnicza AFM
Abstract
In the paper two particular Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility models (MSSV) are under
consideration: one with a switching intercept in the Iog-volatility equation, and the other —
with a regime-dependent autoregression parameter. While the former one is fairly common
in the literature (as a tool of taking account for regimes of different mean volatility level),
the latter has not been paid almost any attention so far. We note the fact, that state-varying
mean volatility may arise from switches in the intercept or in the autoregression parameter.
Hence, we aim to compare these two models in respect of goodness of fit to the data from
the Polish financial market, employing Bayesian techniques of estimation and model comparison.
Clear evidence of structural shifts in the volatility pattern is found. Two different regimes
of the economy are characterized in terms of the mean volatility level and the variance
of volatility.
Description
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Keywords
Markov switching, Stochastic Yolatility model, Bayesian inference, przełączanie typu Markowa, model zmienności stochastycznej (SV), wnioskowanie bayesowskie
Citation
Folia Oeconomica Cracoviensia 2008-2009, Vol. XLIX-L, s. 109-143.