Estymacja ryzyka rynkowego w oparciu o modele Garch i Teorię wartości ekstremalnych
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Data wydania
2010
Autorzy
Tytuł czasopisma
ISSN
0071-674X
eISSN
Tytuł tomu
ISBN
eISBN
Wydawca
Oficyna Wydawnicza AFM
Abstrakt
This paper discusses estimation of two measures of market risk: Value at Risk and Expected
Shortfall. Presented here approach is based on the use of GARCH models and extreme value
theory. GARCH models with different innovation distributions were used to estimate
the current volatility, while extreme value theory was used to model the tail of the innovation
distribution of the GARCH model. This approach enabled to estimate separately the
volatilty of the financial market and the tails of the log return distribution , which led up to
more precise estimation of heaviness of the tails. Backtesting enabled to compare the results
of the proposed method with other standard approaches used in market risk estimation.
Analysis was co nducted for log returns of WIG20 index from 9 years period.
Opis
Tematy
Słowa kluczowe
Źródło
Folia Oeconomica Cracoviensia 2010, Vol. LI, s. 75-96.